Situation Analysis, Students

The future of Chinese- American relations under Trump’s Administration…. Will Relations fall into Abyss?


Since the diplomatic relations between China and the United States initiated in the late 1970s, the bilateral relations between the two countries went through many phases that ranged in-between tensity and stability, at the succession of American administrations.

Despite the Chinese- American disputes over many political issues, especially the one concerning China’s policy in Asia and the Pacific Ocean, the economic relations between the two countries witnessed a tangible improvement in the past decades. Since the beginning of the 1970s, trade and economic relations started to remarkably improve, thus China became one of the United States’ biggest trade partners.

Since Donald Trump assumed office in the United States in 2016, the Chinese- American relations witnessed a tangible tensity. Especially after Trump adopted some escalatory policies against China, particularly on the economic level. Those policies essentially manifested in what was known as the “The American trade with China”.

This war manifested in policies and new American economic practices, the most prominent was imposing new tariffs on goods imported from China, and withdrawing its investments from China, in addition to forcing several Chinese companies to leave the American market. In a retaliatory counter-action, China adopted a list of economic and trading procedures against the United States, such as imposing new tariffs on American imported goods…etc.

Because of the trade war between the two countries, the bilateral economic relations notably regressed, as the number of exports and imports notably regressed, which negatively reflected on the size of trade between the two countries, and led to China’s regression as a trade partner of the United States.

From here on, The Chinese- American relations entered a new phase of intensity and escalation, which caused wide controversy in the international arena on what those bilateral relations will lead to in light of this escalation, and the future of these relations soon, especially if Trump wins a second presidential term.

This future study seeks to induct the future of American- Chinese relations soon, and particularly in the next four years, in light of the recent escalation in the war trade between the two countries.

In this paper’s introduction, it presents a historic introduction on the American- Chinese relations after the end of the Cold War, as it highlights the most prominent features of these relations across different presidential terms, especially each of Bush jr. and Barack Obama’s terms, ending with Trump’s. This introduction focused on bilateral economic relations.

Thereafter, the paper highlights the trade war between China and the United States, through distinguishing the most prominent features of the war, and the manifesting effects for both parts, in addition to its reflection on their bilateral economic relations.

Lastly, this paper presented conduct on the future of the Chinese- American relations during the next four years, by surveying possible scenarios on the future of those relations, in addition to clues and arguments that support each scenario. It concludes two main scenarios, as the first scenario expects a likely military war between the two countries, whilst the second scenario precludes the possibility, expecting the possibility of the two countries settling their economic disputes through diplomatic instruments, far from the option of war.