Situation Analysis, Students

Escalation of Military Conflict in Libya: Background and Outcomes


This paper presents a study for Turkey’s role in the Libyan file, and how Turkey -The sole ally to the Government of National Accord- achieved many victories on the battlefield against its opponent Haftar. Haftar is in control of the Military foundation and receives support from regional and international allies. Despite his many allies, he could not deter the Turkish forces and stop them from taking over the lands previously under his control.

Thereafter, this paper covered the peace agreements and ceasefire, which Haftar did not abide by formerly. He considered himself to be negotiating from a powerful position, as he controlled a vast amount of land. He deemed that ceasefire would abolish his objectives to have full control over Libya and appoint himself as ruler. However, the flow of events revealed how the game rules have changed, as Haftar lost many locations, and Turkey alongside the Government of National Accord only have to take over Sirte for Haftar to witness his greatest relapse. Therefore, Haftar requested a truce to a ceasefire, in hopes to regain his power and readjust his forces so that he can confront Turkey and the GNA. Conversely, his attempt to conclude a truce failed as well, as the Turkish forces had laid a condition for the ceasefire to apply, which is for it to take control over Sirte and for Haftar to withdraw from the battle.

This paper also highlighted the United Nation’s efforts to create a ceasefire and help the parties reach a peaceful solution. Except those efforts failed, as the situation remains the same, and the circumstances are getting more complicated. Whereas no ceasefire can be reached without an agreement between the biggest rivaling allies in the battle, Tukey, and Russia.